2024 United States Presidential Election Poll. Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing democrat kamala harris’s and republican donald trump’s chances of winning.

These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states or swing states. With that poll included, our iowa average has trump ahead by three percentage points, which puts it in line with the core.